Skilled labour emigration in South Africa: Exploring the long-term implications

This SA-TIED policy brief analyses long-term economic impacts of skilled emigration on South Africa using a recursive dynamic CGE model with scenarios covering 2020–2040. It shows that losing skilled workers without offsetting measures reduces productivity (-1.5%), GDP (-1.2%) and revenue (-0.4%) while increasing unemployment (page 1). The brief examines three scenarios: emigration alone, emigration with remittances, and emigration with skills-support subsidies. Remittances mitigate negative effects only in the medium-to-long term, while subsidies raise skilled labour productivity but increase wage inequality (page 1–2). Recommendations include easing remittance flows, improving migration data systems, retaining skilled workers, encouraging diaspora engagement and expanding semi-skilled job creation in manufacturing.